The LED-based A-19 has a good shot at winning market share versus the CFL-based product. The CFL has already copied the familiar A-19 bulb appearance and is available for consumers that do not like the “funny-looking” appearance of the conventional CFL lamp.
Therefore, with strong marketing efforts, sales/ distribution wins, technology/brightness improvement, decrease in retail pricing, (etc) the A19 LED lamp is forecast to be a tough competitor in the US residential market.
As we look at the A19 lamp segmented by Watt, the 60Watt equivalent LED-based lamp was the clear leader in 2011; however, the 100Watt equivalent LED lamp is forecast to take the leadership position next year in 2013 in terms of consumption value. The 100W equivalent lamp is a relatively newcomer to the market, making its debut in mid-2011.
ElectroniCast LED Lamp General Lighting in the U.S.A.
Market Forecast and Analysis
Published: March 26, 2012
Text Pages: 584
Also Included: Excel worksheets and PowerPoint Slides
Fee: $4,200
ElectroniCast Consultants provides the research findings of their study of the United States consumption of Light Emitting Diode (LED) lamps (also known as “consumer-level bulbs”), which are used in luminaires in stationary/fixed location (non-vehicle/non-portable) solid-state lighting (SSL) General Lighting applications. The lamps are used in new fittings, as well as retrofitting/replacement of existing (installed-based) lamps.
General Lighting provides the main illumination of an area. In this study, we provide a market review for the year 2011 plus our forecast and analysis (2012-2016) of LED lamps used for general lighting, including interior and exterior decorative and functional lighting for residential, commercial and government areas.
For the purposes of this study, ElectroniCast Consultants includes Directional Lighting, Supplementary Lighting and Architectural Lighting in the General Lighting category. Lighting used in theaters, photography, newsgathering (TV broadcasts, film, similar) and even lighting used in nightclubs on the dance floor are considered general Lighting; however, lamps used in signage, displays and signal lighting are not included in the market forecast data for this study.
LEDs are used in both functional and decorative light fixtures, with an advantage of energy savings. Compared to incandescent lighting, LED-based lighting delivers visible light with reduced heat. In addition, its solid-state nature provides for greater resistance to shock, vibration, and wear, thereby significantly increasing its lifespan.
LED Level Quantified in the ElectroniCast Study Below, are five levels (or “food chain”) pertaining to the LED marketplace. For the purposes of this ElectroniCast study, we quantify and provide a market forecast for “Level 3”
Level 1 - The chip or die
Level 2 - The Packaged LED
Level 3 – Lamp (Consumer-Level Bulb, Globe, Linear Tube, Panel)
Level 4 - Luminaire (light fixture/lamp holder/fitting)
This report provides the 2011 market data review and 2012-2016 forecast by the following functions:
· Consumption Value (US$)
· Quantity (number/units)
· Average Selling Prices ($, each)
The average selling prices (ASP) are based on the price of the LED lamp at the initial factory level (prior to FOB – Free On Board). The value is then based on the end-use application in the United States.
This study is based on analysis of information obtained continually over the past nine years, but updated through mid-March 2012. During the market research process, ElectroniCast analysts performed interviews with authoritative and representative individuals in the LED and lighting industry, plus – R&D and factory/manufacturing, from the standpoint of both suppliers and users of LED and lighting illumination products.
Forecast Lighting Demand Growth Based on primary research (interviews and evaluations) with engineers and product planners, ElectroniCast Consultants can see ideas and then (eventually) concepts about 3-7 years before innovation solutions (products) are announced in the public domain. Once we feel confident that these ideas and concepts will become innovative solutions (new products), we set anticipated usage into the market forecast. Therefore, as we are looking as several years, many of the future products may not even be at the idea-stage yet. ElectroniCast Consultants, in effect, forecast lighting demand growth, which will drive demand for increased capability/capacity LEDs; therefore, we have expertise of what to look for. We help our clients find the next window of opportunity.
Market Forecast Product Categories This market forecast of United States consumption is presented for six major lamp-type categories. The lamp categories, in turn, may have multiple sub-categories, which are determined by physical size of the lamp (also Watt equivalency in the Type-A category).
Note: lower-level products, which are indented in the list shown in Table 1, are summed-up to the higher-level product category stated above it.
Table 1
ElectroniCast Market Forecast Data Base Hierachy Structure
U.S.A. General Lighting LED Lamp Product Category List
Total Consumption: LED Lamps
PAR16
PAR20
PAR30
PAR38
PAR56
PAR64
PAR-Types: Other (Miscellaneous) Sizes
A15
A19 / Other Type A (sizes)
A19
A19 (60W equivalent)
A19 (75W equivalent)
A19 (100W equivalent)
Other A19 and Other Type A Sizes
Decorative Types: Globe, Other (Candle, Fancy Round, Other)
Globe Shape
Other Decorative (Candle, Fancy Round, Other)
MR16
MR11 / Other MR
Linear / Tube
< 1200mm
> 1200mm (1200mm and longer)
Street / Parking-lot / Campus / Similar (Parks, Walkways)
Increasingly, the automatic assembly and test manufacturing process for LED solid-state lighting products allow for mass-production capability. In addition, over the next few years, the average selling prices of the SSL general lighting products will be driven lower, as a result of production efficiencies, yield improvements (aided by quality controls), competition (both market competition and technology competition), marketing/sales distribution improvements, and other factors.
Market Opportunity Analysis – Market Dynamics The study process by ElectroniCast Consultants takes into account the following points:
- Standards (including general regulations & standards, environmental issues, etc.)
- Policies and schemes for promoting the penetration of LED lighting
- Industry trends in LED lighting fixtures
- Distribution Channel (DIY stores, other stores, Web-based, other)
- LED Lighting industry competitive environment
The use of LED-based lamps in SSL General lighting is driven by promised savings in maintenance/ labor, as well as “Green-Tech” (ecology-oriented) issues. The lamps are lamps are used in new construction, as well as retrofitting/replacement of existing (installed-based) lamps. The Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) is a key marketing dynamic relative to LED Lamps, which typically have a premium price point versus other lighting solutions. Some of the key elements incorporated in the cost of ownership for LED-based lamps vehicle include:
- Depreciation Costs (LEDs last longer)
- Energy Costs (LEDs use less energy)
- Repairs (Especially true as a comparison vs. Ballasts in fluorescent tubes)
- Funding programs and other government-based financial incentives
- Maintenance Costs (Lower labor costs/less lamp replacements)
Opportunity Costs are also in the TCO mix; since ElectroniCast takes into account that using LED (energy-efficient lighting and other carbon footprint/pollution issues) depicts the organization, which installs them, as a good corporate citizen.
In 2011, the United States consumption value of specified LED lamps, which are used in General Lighting, was $592 million (up 22% from 2010). ElectroniCast forecasts the consumption value will reach $2.41 billion in the year 2016 representing an average annual growth rate of 32.4 percent (2011-2016).
In terms of consumption value, the Parabolic aluminized reflector (PAR) lamp is forecast with double-digit growth (2011-2016), the unit (quantity) growth will be partially offset by the price declines.
The Multifaceted Reflector (MR) compatible is forecast for very impressive growth, as the LED solution finds a way to provide equivalent brightness (versus the halogen MR lamp) and competitive pricing.
As we look at the A19 lamp segmented by Watt, the 60Watt equivalent LED-based lamp was the clear leader in 2011; however, the 100Watt equivalent LED lamp is forecast to take the leadership position next year in 2013 in terms of consumption value. The 100W equivalent lamp is a relatively newcomer to the market, making its debut in mid-2011.
The LED-based Linear (Tube) Lamp, which is an emerging competitor of the fluorescent tube is forecast to increase at a very impressive annual growth (2011-2016) in consumption value; however, even by 2016 the LED tube solution is forecast to make a relatively small impact on the monster fluorescent tube market, which is the main-stay of the American office building sector.
The street lamp category includes lamps specifically sold for the purpose of walkway, campus, parking-lot lamps, which are similar (exterior) lamps, which are typically affixed on a pole/mast (there are exceptions to the rule – for example roadway lighting in tunnels).
I really like to use this A-19 Lighting for my house.
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Not a lot of LED lamps can give the potency of a led lampen e14, and the same quality for THAT low price.
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