Contact: stephen_montgomery@electronicast.com
ElectroniCast specializes in forecasting technology and global market trends in electronics, fiber
optics, light emitting diodes (LEDs), advanced photonics, integrated circuits, microwave/wireless,
and network communications . As an independent consultancy we offer multi-client and custom
market research studies to the world's leading companies based on comprehensive, in-depth
analysis of quantitative and qualitative factors.
ElectroniCast forecasts trends in communication networks and in the products and components
used in those networks. ElectroniCast conducts studies and provides forecasts in the worldwide
fiber optic/photonic, optoelectronic and network product industries. This includes technology
forecasting, markets and applications forecasting, strategic planning, competitive analysis, and
marketing/sales consultation. ElectroniCast Consultants, founded as a technology-based
independent forecasting firm, meets the information needs of communication industry planners and
related suppliers. These studies are either multiclient or custom.
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Serving Clients
The ElectroniCast purpose is to understand your problems, and to provide timely, high-quality
analysis and forecasts to help solve those problems. We focus on your interests. That's why over
80 percent of our business is with clients we have served before.
ElectroniCast conducts studies, and provides forecasts, in the worldwide fiber optic/photonic and
optoelectronics industries. These studies are either multiclient or custom.
Multiclient studies and services are available to any subscriber. They are structured broadly, to be
useful to a wide range of clients.
Custom studies are tailored to the interests of a single client, and are proprietary to that client. The
custom study typically is narrowly defined. It may focus on strategic business planning, markets,
technology, competition, acquisition strategy, or any other information requirement.
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Research Areas
ElectroniCast covers Fiber Optics/Photonics, Optoelectronics, Communication-Related Services,
and Interconnection at all levels including:
Systems
Equipment and Subsystems
Components
Materials and Parts
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How To Get Started
E-mail me if you need a forecast or planning assistance. A general or custom
study will be proposed without obligation.
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Technology Focus
ElectroniCast concentrates on areas where future technology advancement will have a major
impact on new product and service market opportunities:
Fiber Optics
Network Communications
Advanced Photonic Products
LEDs and Illumination
Microwave Communication
Optical Wireless
The ElectroniCast staff includes analysts with strong backgrounds in these technologies. Much of
the ElectroniCast field research is aimed at analyzing worldwide laboratory activity and forecasting
the resulting technology trends. These technology forecasts are then applied to extensive end-user,
bottom-up market analysis. Input/output methodology is used as a cross-check of these user-based
market forecasts.
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Application Focus
ElectroniCast segments component and systems use into the following major application
categories:
Telecommunications
LAN/Private Data Networks
Cable TV
Military/Aerospace
Utilities
Specialty
Harsh Environment
Test/Medical Sciences
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We Help You Catch The Window
The product life cycles of high technology electronic products are short, and will continue to shrink.
For success, it is vital to target the right products for development and to introduce them to the
market at the right time. Decisions on major R&D and facility investments must be made before
competitors’ products seize the market—and these decisions must be made quickly.
ElectroniCast's fast-turn-around analysis and forecasts help you catch the windows of opportunity.
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Forecast Methodology
In analyzing and forecasting a product or service market, ElectroniCast combines several
techniques:
Product consumption and production history is determined by:
• Interviews of the leading product or service users and producers ("dual track" primary
research)
• Secondary research (a review of published information, including industry data, technical
papers, financial reports)
This research provides a consensus of the past history of the product or service: value, price
trends, application trends, leading producers and their market shares.
The forecast, working from this historical data, is based on interviews of:
• Users (mainly design engineers who decide which product to specify)
• Suppliers (manufacturers, distributors, transporters)
• Researchers (industrial, government, university)
• Government agencies
The short range (1-2 years) forecast is based mainly on a consensus of supplier and user
viewpoints. If adequate historical data are available, projections also may contribute to the short-
range forecast. These methods, however, are not suitable for long-range forecasts, especially for
advanced-technology products.
The long-range forecast is based upon the following sequence:
• The advancement of technology of the product, competing products and the end applications is
forecasted based on interviews of researchers and other experts in the product field.
• The economic significance of the advanced technology products is analyzed from the following
perspectives:
• Real value to user, determined by user interviews
• Displacement of competing products
• Creation of new markets
• The production of the end-use equipments or systems is forecasted.
• Production costs, and thus minimum pricing, of the product at various quantity levels are
analyzed.
• The demand forecast is derived by bottom-up, application-by-application analysis.
The analysis of cost-effectiveness and understanding of the user perception of risk of the product
provide insight into the rate of penetration of the product into the various end applications at its
minimum profitable price. Input/output analysis applies the penetration forecasts to the end-
application production forecasts to provide a cross-check of the product consumption forecast.
This consumption forecast is then adjusted by forecasted imports and exports, inventory change,
R&D use, and other non-production markets to derive the total production forecast. Finally, by user
interviews, the production forecasts are segmented into captive (in-house) production versus
available (merchant) market. The forecast data are computer-processed and the forecasts are
available on CD Rom or via e-mail delivery.
Why ElectroniCast Consultants Leads
MATURITY
A base of over a quarter century of forecasting technology application and market trends of leading-
edge photonic and electronic products. No other consultancy compares to ElectroniCast
Consultants in the number of current, in-depth fiber optic component forecast reports.
ADVANCED PHOTONICS
Photonic Integrated Circuit Transceivers (PICs)
Optical Fiber Amplifiers (OFAs)
Optoelectronic Integrated Circuits (OEICs)
Massively Parallel Optical Interconnect (Masspar)
Vertical Cavity Surface Emitting Laser (VCSEL) Transceivers
Optical Crossconnect (OXC) Matrix Switches
Optical Add/Drop Multiplexers (OADMs)
Optical Backplanes (OBPs) and Motherboards
Internal Optical Interconnect
BOTTOM-UP ANALYSIS
The forecasted product is divided into its subsets (and sub-subsets). The significant applications
are identified. For each product subset, in each application, the base year consumed quantity and
its average per-unit price is estimated, based on in-depth interviews of both customers and
suppliers. This is repeated for each succeeding year of the forecasts. Quantity is multiplied to
obtain the value forecasts, at these lowest levels. The quantity and value forecasts are then
summed to obtain the total forecast. All of this bottom-up quantity, price and value data is provided
in spreadsheets with each report.
EXTRAORDINARY DATA BASES
The bottom-up forecast numbers are managed within extremely detailed spreadsheets which
support accurate forecasting of over 20 fiber optic component categories plus end applications
(equipment) and subsidiary piece parts. These forecast spreadsheets, in printout format, on CD, are
provided to each client.
The consumption quantities of various components are related to each other, as well as to the
quantities of consuming equipment and the quantities of supporting parts. This permits cross-
referencing of forecasts, to improve accuracy.
CONSULTANT RELATIONSHIP
Clients have access to forecast report authors and support staff for extended exploration and
clarification. ElectroniCast maintains a continuing consulting relationship with its clients, providing
additional information as needed.
INDEPENDENCE
ElectroniCast is owned by its founder and staff, free from influence by outside ownership.
Excellence in forecasting and client service are the guiding principles.
CONFERENCE SPONSORSHIP
ElectroniCast organizes and sponsors several fiber optic component industry conferences,
facilitating interaction among client and ElectroniCast staff with industry leaders in all areas
Industry Sectors
-Telecommunications
-LAN/Premise Data Networks
-Cable
-Specialty
-Military/Aerospace/Harsh Environment
-Test/Medical Sciences
Technology Sectors
-Fiber Optics
-Network Communications
-Advanced Photonic Products
-Optoelectronics
- LEDs and Illumination
-Microwave Communication
-Optical Wireless
Global
-Global Summary
-North, Central and South America (America)
-Europe, plus Middle Eastern and African countries (EMEA)
-Asia Pacific (APAC)
We Help You Catch the
Window!
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