Market Overview by, Stephen Montgomery, ElectroniCast
For more information, Contact: Stephen Montgomery: stephen_montgomery@electronicastconsultants.com
Market Forecast Application Categories This chapter presents the ElectroniCast market forecast for the years 2011-2021 for the worldwide consumption (use) of OLEDs used in General Light applications (see chapter 6 for the definition of General Lighting). Regional and sub-real market forecasts are also presented and segmented by two major End-User categories:
· Government/Commercial, including R&D
· Residential/Non-Specific, including R&D
End-user OLED-based general lighting solutions (product designs) are still, very much in the idea-to-concept stage in 2011 and going into 2012. The Government/ Commercial (mainly interior/office) application is forecast to maintain its market share dominance versus the Residential/Other user-group category, because of the relative higher selling price of the OLED solution versus other lighting technology.
OLED lighting is environmentally friendly, mercury-free, and ideal as next-generation lighting. Owing to its outstanding thinness, lightness, low electric power consumption, and use as a surface light source, it has a wide range of potential applications.
ElectroniCast forecasts that the consumption of General Lighting OLED panels in the Residential/Other user-group will trend to premium (high-price) lighting fixtures and specialty applications (niche applications), which may not necessarily be adequately served by other lighting solutions. Therefore, until these “niche” general lighting OLED panel solutions develop in the Residential marketplace, consumption is forecast to remain minor.
Beyond the “light-bulb” Mentality The ElectroniCast market opportunity analysis (MOA) shows the OLED panel market should not be limited to (only) lamps and typical (conventional) lamp fixtures for general lighting (table lamps, wall/ceiling fixtures). ElectroniCast assumes that the OLED panel general-lighting market will grow beyond the “light-bulb” mentality to a broad base of applications, which currently may not even be in the idea-stage. Applications that have been mentioned by industry participants include (but not limited to) OLED incorporated into the following applications; however, to fall under the General Lighting definition and not the architectural lighting definition, the illumination of an area must be the primary purpose of the OLED panel:
· Windows/Skylights
· Wall panels or wall panels; Mirrors with light function
· Flooring/Steps-stairs
· Furniture or structural lighting
· Other (almost endless possibilities)
Role of Professional Lighting Designers Recent advances in technology and education have made the role of professional lighting designers critical to the success of exterior architectural and landscape lighting projects, as well as market potential in major interior lighting opportunities. Illumination design has become a creative extension of architecture - one in which lighting is a silent design partner, improving visibility and complimenting form, shape, and color.
New developments in lamp and luminaire technologies are being introduced into the marketplace continually. Lighting designers are tremendous resource for innovative, practical and economically viable lighting solutions. They understand the role of lighting in architecture and interior design and rely on their extensive experience and knowledge of lighting equipment and systems to enhance and strengthen design.
The Professional Lighting Designers' Association (PLDA) was originally founded as the European Lighting Designers' Association ELDA+, and is a voluntary federation of lighting designers and lighting consultants who are active on an international scale, their purpose being to increase the reputation of the profession and to establish the profession as such in its own right. Membership is centered on the professional architectural lighting designer. An architectural lighting designer is a person who possesses the knowledge and expertise to carry out all the work required to design light for interior and exterior architectural projects in such a way that the design can be implemented, become an integral part of the project and establish an efficient, enjoyable, healthy, safe, sustainable and well accepted environment for the people who live, work and relax in it.
In spite of the multitude of technical possibilities now available, the fact remains that light, as an invisible medium is not easy to handle. Poor lighting is the result of bad planning. For this reason, the purposeful application of light in the architectural context is not only a logical consequence but also an absolute must.
With on-going evaluations relative to the future of OLEDs in General Lighting, there is a challenge to enter the displacement process versus the status quo (staying with the traditional lighting technologies). There is the need to overcome misconceptions about the true value proposition of OLEDs. While some are seeking to replace existing fixtures with OLED light lamps and/or fixtures, others recognize the new paradigms that are evolving. OLEDs offer a new model for light - digital light - with a set of features that completely change the value proposition of light, the relationship between light and information, how consumers experience light, how they control it, how they can use it.
In 2011, OLEDs in several lighting applications are considered innovation, however, not widely considered an alternative to other technology. However, OLEDs will emerge as a General Lighting option, largely driven by ecological (“Green”) concerns, as will as government financial incentives and technological advances in manufacturing and material processes. Sometimes this can be reflected in the marketing approaches of OLED lighting equipment makers, which focus on the unique and “eye-catching” color-change effects that can be achieved rather than addressing the needs of the professional lighting market.
ElectroniCast stresses that the OLED for use in general lighting, at least near-term, should be promoted (pushed) as a “complimentary” solution to general lighting; therefore the OLED marketing/product-planning group in a particular lighting manufacturer should work closely (cooperate) with the other groups (fluorescent lamps, LEDs, etc) in advancing the OLED from the idea-stage to the concept-stage and into the innovation-stage of product planning.
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